Thursday, September 23, 2010

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Economic Predictions For The Rest Of 2010

Bob Chapman


First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the 'unreality'…the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications …(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.


Gerald Celente


Terrorist attacks and the "Crash of 2010". 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.


Igor Panarin


In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000.


Neithercorps


Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.


Webbots


July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.


LEAP 20/20


2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, "THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER."


Joseph Meyer


Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.


Harry Dent (investor)


A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market–currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity–headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000, with his best guess about 3,800.




Richard Russell (Market Expert)


(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong).




NiƱo Becerra (Professor of Economics)


Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.


Lyndon Larouche


The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.


WALL STREET JOURNAL- (2/2010)


"You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late."


Eric deCarbonnel


There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America's savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of firesale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar's collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.


Alpha-Omega Report (Trends Forecast)


Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy. Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse..There are also trend indicators along economic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.


Robin Landry (Market Expert)


I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.


John P. Hussman, Ph.D.


In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.


Robert Prechter


Founder of Elliott Wave International, implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area, “predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.


Richard Mogey


Current Research Director at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles- Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.


James Howard Kunstler (January 2010)


The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.


Peter Schiff (3/13/2010)


"In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year's lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar's descent and refocus everyone's attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today's announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed's Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed's top players." Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of the economic events of 2008.


Lindsey Williams


Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food. This was revealed to him through an Illuminati insider.


Unnamed Economist working for US Gov't (GLP)


What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now…you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression. Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.


Jimmy "Doomsday"


DOW will fall below 7,000 before mid summer 2010- Dollar will rise above 95 on the dollar index before mid summer 2010- Gold will bottom out below $800 before mid summer 2010- Silver will bottom out below $10 before mid summer 2010- CA debt implosion will start its major downturn by mid summer and hit crisis mode before Q4 2010- Dollar index will plunge below 65 between Q3 and Q4 2010- Commercial real estate will hit crisis mode in Q4 2010- Over 35 states will be bailed out by end of Q4 2010 by the US tax payer End of Q4 2010 gold will hit $1,600 and silver jump to $35 an oz.


George Ure


Markets up until mid-to-late-summer. Then "all hell breaks lose" from then on through the rest of the year.


Reference: MorningLiberty.com

Choosing Your Survival Knife

There are many factors that should influence your choice of survival knife. Purchasing a knife can be quite an expenditure- you can spend hundreds of dollars on a "custom made" survival knife, or you can spend the equivalent of a couple weeks' coffee money on a serviceable and functional knife. Before you go looking for your knife, ask yourself these questions: How often will you be using your knife? WIll it sit on a shelf most of the year and only come out for a couple of backpack trips in the summer? If this is the case you may want a smaller, lighter knife for a survival situation only. Will your knife be used for extended periods of time, in primitive living situations for example? If you plan to use your knife for weeks at a time throughout the year, you may want to consider something larger and more robust. Do you prefer a folding or fixed blade? A locking folder as a survival knife is perfectly acceptable especially if your knife is in a survival only kit. I keep a folding locker in my PFD survival kit for river trips. Otherwise I prefer a fixed blade. A fixed blade is safer, and often longer and therefore easier to use than a folder, and more suited to "everyday" or extended wilderness use.


Knowing what kind of a knife you need is the starting point. Whichever route you choose to go, as with all survival gear, be sure to use your knife, get familiar with it and know its limitations before you need to use it. Following is a list of considerations to keep in mind when searching for your survival knife.


- Cost
- Handle length, girth, material
- Overall weight
- Blade length and thickness
- Blade edge or style, single edge, double edge, clip pointed blade, tanto-style blade
back style- the edge of the knife that is opposite the blade, may have a sharpened edge (as in a double edge blade), a false edge (having a beveled back), or serrations (sawteeth)
- Composition, type of metal
- Construction, half tang (blade material ends shortly after entering handle), full length tang (solid piece of metal entire length of knife), rivets, screws, moving parts
-Sawteeth or serrations
- Butt or pommel style
- Guard style, may be integrated as on Frosts Mora, or separate as on USAF knife
- Sheath, material, security, tie downs, storage features




My personal choice as the ultimate survival knife especially for primitive living exercises is the USAF Survival Knife, seen in the photo to the right. The knife is a bit heavy for ultralight backpacking, but otherwise meets all of my personal requirements in a blade. It is available at most military surplus stores for about 35 dollars. Make sure you get the real thing, and not a cheap imitation. The best price I have found recently for the USAF Survival Knife is about 35 dollars at a website called Bestglide.com. The latest version is known as the SP2 Air Force Survival Knife and has a polymer handle and mostly cordura sheath. The overall knife design seems to be unchanged. It will cost closer to 50 dollars.


The sheath is leather, the snap is very secure, it has a number of holes where 550 cord can be tied for securing the knife to your body, and it has a pocket with a small sharpening stone. The raw leather sheath was kind of bright for me; mine is dyed with black shoe dye. The handle end of the knife, the butt, is a piece of solid steel and can be used as a hammer. There are sawteeth on the back of the blade- something I use a lot.


I keep a cordlock compass, a Hot Spark metal match and a piece of 550 cord tied on mine. The 550 cord acts like a sling to carry the knife over the shoulder and is long enough for use on a bow for a bow and drill fire kit. Also wrapped around the sheath and covered with a Ranger band (a 1 1/2 inch length of bike inner tube) is 30 feet of 63 pound test nylon fishing line.


Reference: SouthwestGuideBooks.com

Survival Kits

Essentials for the office
- Read your company's evacuation plan and know where to meet after an emergency.
- Know where exit routes, stairways, fire extinguishers, and medical kits are located.
- Assemble supplies in a single pack and have them stored in your desk. Along with your supplies, store a pair of walking shoes.
- Carry a list of important phone numbers in your wallet.
- Keep the area under your desk free of waste-paper baskets, etc. This 6 square foot area might be home for a few traumatic moments. If you are not at your desk when something happens, don't count on being able to make it back. Store additional supplies in your car (see below).


Essentials for the car
Even if you are at home when a disaster strikes, and your home is well stocked, you may still need the supplies in your car when you have to evacuate at a moments notice. Your house may not be safe to enter, or may catch fire after a disaster like an earthquake.


Your car will be one of your most important resources after a disaster strikes. Keep it mechanically sound, and pay close attention to the exhaust system. A leaking exhaust system could kill.


- Always keep your gas tank full! Fill it when it reaches 1/2 a tank. You will thank yourself the first time you are stuck in a traffic jam in bad weather.
- Think of your car's trunk as a big steel supply cabinet. Keep your supplies in the trunk along with other items like tools, jumper cables and spare tire.
- Keep the car mechanically sound and ready to use.
- Keep supplies in the car for use in an emergency.
- Replace your battery every 3-4 years. In an emergency, your car battery will need to run the radio and heater for extended periods.


Home Storage
Water
- 30 gallons per person (2 gallons per person per day for 1 week). This might sound excessive, but look at your water bill this month! This figure assumes that when at home, you will eventually want a sponge bath, or will cook pasta or rice. You might even wash your hair or clothes, and will eventually flush a toilet. Safety Central carries 2.5 and five gallon size food grade plastic containers that are ideal for emergency water storage. A good location is in a detached garage (single story) or away from any heavy structure that may topple over onto them. Remember that your water heater in the house is typically 50 gallons, and may be used as a secondary (only) water supply if your dwelling survives. Additional water should be stored in 5 gallon plastic containers and should be stored in separate locations away from your main water supply (not all your eggs in one basket).


Food
- Each person or family should have on hand an emergency food supply other than your weekly store bought food. people tend to consume their emergency food supply to easily when it's to readily available like canned foods, mixes, soups etc. That is why we recommend purchasing freeze dried , dehydrated, MRES, type of foods that have an extremely long shelf life that are nutritious and can be stored in the same area for accessibility ,while still maintaining your weekly store bought food supply. Plan for a minimum of one week of food per person, Don't forget a manual can opener! No power, no way to open cans!
- MREs - Meals ready to eat. These are ideal for inside and outside storage conditions. Remember, the key is to distribute your supplies at various locations. These may be stored in the worst of conditions. Long shelf life with no rotation.
- Freeze Dried Food- this superior storable food is available in #10 cans Approx. (one gallon) size cans that have many servings in them, and is a great choice for your main (bulk) storable food supply (available in individual cans or complete family and business systems. Freeze dried food has a shelf life of up to 30 years. while the pouched meals are a great choice for distributing your food in various locations (just in case you can't get to your main food supply. The freeze dried food pouches are also a great choice for storing in your vehicle, and for camping, hiking, flying or anyplace where a lightweight hot meal is desired. They have a 5 year shelf life, taste great and retain nutrition, texture and aroma. Freeze dried foods are available in our food section.


Cooking
- Barbecue, 40 pounds charcoal, and two cans of starter fluid. Or a propane unit with two 20 pound containers of propane. A propane camp stove may also be used.


Cooking Supplies
- Pot and pan for cooking.
- Kitchen knife.
- Silverware. Spoon, fork.
- Styrofoam cups.
- Water proof matches or lighter.
- Zip lock bags.
- Aluminum foil. A must! Can be formed into just about anything you might need.


Shelter
- Two person tube tent minimum, larger size better.
- Wool blanket or sleeping bag.
- Emergency Space blanket.
- Instant hand/body warming pads.
- Propane powered Heater, 20 pound cylinder mounted.


Medical
- First aid kit. Safety Central has several First Aid kits available. One is ideal for your car supplies and another is ideal for the home.
- We also recommend taking a first aid class including CPR.

Additional items

- First aid manual.
- Extra prescription medications.
- Aspirin or Ibuprofen.


Light
- Flashlight with 2 sets of spare alkaline batteries and one spare bulb or an emergency light.
- Lantern, battery, kerosene or propane powered. Store fuel or batteries, but never use fuel based lighting until you are sure gas leaks are eliminated.
- Long life candles.
- Water proof matches or lighter.


Communication
- AM/FM radio. Store at least 3 sets of alkaline batteries for standard units. The best radio is one that has rechargeable NI-cads built in, and may be charged with the built in solar cell, or by cranking on a built in generator handle. We recommend this radio for your supplies in your car as well.
- Pen, pencil, and paper pad. Store in zip lock bag.
- Stamped postcards. Store in zip lock bags. Your house might be gone, but if you still have a mailbox, the mail will continue service. An easy way to stay in touch with family far away.
- List of important phone numbers, including your out of state focal.
- Weather radio or police scanner. A bit expensive, but a weather radio is a must in tornado and hurricane country.


Tools
- Fire extinguisher large 5-20 pound, type ABC.
- Crow bar, 1 ft min.
- Leather gloves.
- Multi-function pocket tool or knife.
- Plastic tarp, 9x12 ft min.
- Nylon rope, 100 foot.
- Duct tape.
- A multi-purpose tool for shutting of gas and water main valves.
- Portable generator. Make your selection based on what really needs to be powered and the run time of the model. Our recommendation is for a maximum size of 5 HP, 2250 Watt 120vac only. To get a 230vac generator will require an 8 HP motor, and your run time will drop in half. Typically, the only items in your house that will require 230vac is an electric heating system, an electric water heater, or an electric range. What you really need to power is a refrigerator, a few lights, and a radio.
- Power converter for running 120 volt items from car battery.


Sanitation
- Portable chemical toilet and disinfectant crystals. Store in garage away from house. You will only need this if your dwelling is damaged, or if your water supply is limited.
- Toilet tissue rolls. Store inside portable toilet. Garbage bags. Can also be used as toilet liners.
- Pre-moistened towelettes.
- All purpose liquid soap.
- Tooth brush and paste.
- Disposable razor.
- Feminine hygiene items.
- Latex gloves.
- Gallon of disinfectant.


Baby stuff (if needed)
- Baby formula and plastic bottles.
- Large box disposable diapers.
- Pre moistened wet wipes.
- Baby blanket and knit cap.
- Two or three complete change of baby clothes.
Misc.
- One complete change of clothing for each person.
- Emergency poncho.
- Pair of boots each person.
- Phone change. $6.50 in quarters fit in a plastic 35mm film container nicely.
- $50 cash min, in ones, five's, and tens.
- Duplicate credit cards.
- Photo copies of ID.
- Spare checks.
- Playing cards. We recommend our line of informational survival cards.
- Spare keys.


Reference: safetycentral.com